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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the sole EU chief to back Donald Trump. This alignment was expected, given the Hungarian leader's embrace of controversial theories including great replacement ideology and the crackdowns on press independence. Commentators point out that Mr Orbán practically pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support Ahead of the Hungarian Vote

Last week, ahead of pivotal polls in Hungary merely half a year off, the American leader returned some political favors. With Orbán aims for a fifth term in office governing a country he describes as an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party is behind in surveys. A meeting to the US capital resulted in not just a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured far more significant electoral advantages.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Although previously lecturing European states on the necessity to stop all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and warning of restrictions against nations still to import Russian energy, Mr Trump consented to allow a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the US government also promised to provide a fiscal buffer to Budapest if it encounters any later issues, especially as EU institutions continues to withhold large sums from the EU to Hungary due to violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this arrangement remain vague. Yet Mr Trump has shown his readiness to support ideological allies as the United States extended a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. Although the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nevertheless proved a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention will have emphasized the strategic importance of the forthcoming polls, before which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a clear edge in the polls. EU chiefs are accustomed not to look for principled consistency from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the Trump's attempts to undermine the EU. However Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Russian military campaign.
• At the same time, Hungary has consistently deployed the veto power to hinder advancement in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the negotiating table continues to be a major hurdle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has refrained from pledging a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on home affairs, while emphasizing the necessity for the country to start acting as a positive member state. After years of persistent provocations, the European Union can only remain patient. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, such as the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His continued obstructionism regarding Ukrainian matters threatens to weaken its security prospects.